College Football Best Bets for Week 7: Big Clashes in the ACC, Big Ten
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College Football Best Bets for Week 7: Big Clashes in the ACC, Big Ten

Kody Malstrom breaks down his three best college football bets for Week 7, including angles on Northwestern vs. Michigan State and Florida State vs. Miami.

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Arguably the most jam-packed slate of the year has finally arrived, pitting 12 top-25 teams against each other with serious playoff implications. 

While the heavyweights hog the spotlight, we kick off the slate backing Northwestern in a conference matchup against Michigan State, with the Wildcats in a favorable position to light up the scoreboard.

Here are my favorite Week 7 college football bets.

College Football Best Bets for Week 7

Northwestern (-7) vs. Michigan State (-102, Caesars)

After starting the year 2-0, Michigan State has fallen hard back down to reality, limping into Saturday 2-4. Not only has the offense been ravaged by injuries, but the Spartans' lack of production on defense has made it difficult to be competitive while ranking near dead last in success rate, explosiveness allowed, finishing drives and havoc.

With Northwestern on deck, the Spartans will continue to struggle to create hard stops while battling it out against an offense that creates explosive plays at a high rate, per the Wildcats' top-30 mark in explosiveness. When backed up near the goal line, the Spartans have been unable to take advantage of the shortened field, giving up 3.84 points per opportunity.

On the other side of the field, Northwestern will be able to get Michigan State off the field quickly by neutralizing an offense that resides in the bottom half of the board in success rate. When the Spartans are held to an early out, the Wildcats' total number of possessions on offense will increase, making it easier to pull away on the scoreboard.

Florida State vs. Miami (Team Total o37.5) (-120, DraftKings)

Since the start of the regular season, Miami has been able to play at a high level, ranking in the top-10 in success rate, finishing drives and havoc allowed. Darian Mensah’s rocket arm has played a major role in the Hurricanes' success this year, throwing for nearly 300 yards per game while completing 84.2% of his passes.

With Mensah and Malachi Toney stretching out the second level, Mark Fletcher Jr. has been able to hit the ground running, carrying the Hurricanes to the top of the board in rush EPA per play while averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. When Fletcher is able to pull defensive attention to the middle, Toney has more room to work with on the outside, resulting in an explosive play once he breaks away from his assignment.

With no signs of slowing down, Miami will be able to continue to move the ball down the field at a consistent rate in a conference matchup against Florida State by exploiting a Seminoles defense that ranks 89th in success rate. By allowing Mensah to consistently cut the distance to gain in half, Miami’s probability of converting skyrockets, leading to an uptick in the Hurricanes' total number of scoring opportunities.

Wisconsin (Team Total u20.5) vs. UCLA (-110, BetMGM)

After fielding arguably the worst defense in the nation last year, UCLA has been able to bounce back in a major way in Bob Chesney’s first year as the Bruins head coach, leaping into the top 25 in finishing drives and havoc.

In a battle against Wisconsin, UCLA will be able to continue to create disruptions at a high rate by taking advantage of an offense that struggles to take care of the ball, per the Badgers' below-league-average mark in havoc allowed. When UCLA is able to get the ball out of Colton Joseph’s hands shortly after the snap, the Bruins will be able to keep a defender on the Badgers' pass catcher's hips, narrowing his passing lanes.

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